The CIA now believes the spy agency is pointing the finger at China, admitting it has “low confidence” in its own conclusion, according to an assessment released Saturday.
The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was classified and released Saturday, at the behest of John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in as director by President Donald Trump on Thursday.
The subtle finding suggests that the agency believes the totality of the evidence suggests a laboratory origin is more likely than a natural origin. But the agency’s assessment places less confidence in this conclusion, suggesting that the evidence is insufficient, inconclusive, or contradictory.
Previous accounts of the origins of COVID-19 have been divided over whether the coronavirus emerged in a Chinese laboratory, was accidentally released, or occurred naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to settle the debate. Indeed, intelligence officials say it may never be resolved due to the lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
The CIA “continues to assess both research-related and natural origin scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic as plausible,” the agency wrote in a statement about its new assessment.
Rather than new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh intelligence analysis of the spread of the virus, its scientific properties, and the operations and conditions of China’s virology labs.
Lawmakers have pressed U.S. intelligence agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which has caused lockdowns, economic turmoil and the deaths of millions. It is a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the legacy of the pandemic.
Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday that he was “pleased that the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation,” and praised Ratcliffe for declassifying the assessment.
“Now, the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a pandemic on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.
The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately return messages seeking comment. Speculation about the origins of COVID has been dismissed by Chinese authorities in the past as politically motivated and unhelpful.
The origin of the virus is unknown, but like most coronaviruses, the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats before infecting another species, most likely raccoon dogs, civet cats, or bats. In turn, the infection spread to people who handled or killed those animals at a market in Wuhan where the first human cases were found in late November 2019.
However, some official investigations have raised the question of whether the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. Two years ago, a Department of Energy report concluded that a laboratory leak was the most likely origin, but that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.
That same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus had spread “very widely” after escaping from a laboratory.
Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, has said he favors the lab leak.
“The only theory supported by science, intelligence and common sense is the lab leak,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.
The CIA said it would continue to evaluate any new information that might change its assessment.