On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for a second consecutive term, becoming only the second president in U.S. history to do so since Grover Cleveland in 1893.
His victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election sets the stage for his return to the Oval Office, a position he previously held from 2017 to 2021. Trump’s return to power marks a defining moment not only in American politics but also in global geopolitics, with major implications for regions such as South Asia. As the United States grapples with domestic challenges and international tensions, a Trump 2.0 presidency will have profound implications for countries in South Asia, many of which are already navigating a complex landscape of economic growth, security concerns and shifting alliances.
With forecasts calling for bitterly cold weather, Trump will be sworn in from inside the Capitol Rotunda on Monday, culminating months of meticulous planning for a massive outdoor ceremony that will draw crowds along the National Mall. The Rotunda has been prepared as a backup for every inauguration in case of inclement weather. The last time the inauguration was held indoors was in 1985, when President Ronald Reagan began his second term. Monday’s forecast calls for the coldest Inauguration Day temperatures since that date.
As President Trump enters the Oval Office for his second term, he is determined to make a dramatic start. After weeks of planning, the Trump administration has set the stage for a “shock and awe” debut designed to captivate domestic and international audiences. However, even before his second term officially begins, he is already facing immediate challenges, most notably the raging wildfire crisis in Los Angeles, which threatens to distract from his high-profile moment.
As President Trump begins his second term, his approach to global politics, particularly in South Asia, will be defined by his “America First” doctrine. His policies have historically been unilateral and transactional, prioritizing U.S. economic and strategic interests, often at the expense of global multilateral frameworks and alliances. The region, with its geopolitical importance, economic diversity, and increasingly central role in the U.S.-China rivalry, will face both challenges and opportunities in the years ahead.
Under President Trump’s first term (2017–21), the United States pursued a clear-cut and often unpredictable foreign policy. His administration was driven by a desire to renegotiate or withdraw from existing international agreements and prioritize U.S. economic and security interests. This approach manifested itself in a variety of ways: from trade wars with China to withdrawal from the Paris climate accords and the Iran nuclear deal, to imposing steep tariffs on imports from nations including China, Mexico, and Canada. Trump’s emphasis on bilateral negotiations and direct, cost-benefit analyses marked a sharp departure from traditional multilateral diplomacy.
For South Asia, the implications of this approach are far-reaching. From trade tariffs to military alliances, Trump’s policies directly affect the economic and security landscapes of the region. India, a key partner in countering China’s growing regional dominance, has benefited from his administration’s emphasis on strengthening U.S.-India ties. Meanwhile, other South Asian nations, particularly those of less direct strategic importance to the United States, have found themselves navigating the complexities of dealing with his foreign policy.
India is among the most significant beneficiaries of Trump’s foreign policy in South Asia, and it has emerged as a cornerstone of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. During Trump’s first term, U.S.-India ties deepened amid widespread concerns about China’s assertive behavior in the region. As the United States continues to pursue an Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s growing influence, India’s role as a strategic partner has never been more crucial.
Trump 2.0 is likely to further strengthen this relationship by providing continued support for India’s defense and security interests. The US is already India’s third largest arms supplier after Russia and France. In addition, strategic security partnerships such as the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geographical Cooperation (BECA), concluded during Trump’s first term, are expected to deepen military cooperation and intelligence sharing between the two countries.
The United States is also likely to provide India with advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as cybersecurity, space exploration, and maritime security. Given the rising tensions in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, the United States will likely look to India to play an even greater role in maintaining regional security, especially in maritime affairs. The Trump administration’s focus on countering China, particularly through joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and defense technology, is likely to lead to greater cooperation between the United States and India.
However, India’s relationship with the United States under Trump is not without challenges. The two countries are likely to clash over trade issues, including tariffs and intellectual property rights. Trump has repeatedly criticized India for its trade barriers and has pressured India to further open its market. During his first term, India lost its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status, which allowed it to export goods to the United States duty-free. These trade tensions are expected to persist under Trump 2.0, as India seeks to balance its growing security ties with the United States against its desire to protect its domestic industries and economic independence.
In contrast to India, Pakistan’s relationship with the United States during Trump’s first term was fraught with tension, largely due to Pakistan’s role in the war on terror and its strategic ties with China. The United States cut off security aid to Pakistan in 2018, placed it on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, and repeatedly criticized Islamabad for providing sanctuary to terrorist groups targeting U.S. interests in Afghanistan.
Under Trump 2.0, it is unlikely that the U.S.-Pakistan relationship will undergo a major shift unless there is a significant shift in Pakistan’s domestic policies on terrorism and its relations with China. Trump’s approach to Pakistan has often been hawkish, focusing on pressuring Islamabad to take a more active role in counterterrorism efforts. Trump’s rhetoric may soften at times, but unless Islamabad’s approach on these issues changes significantly, his administration’s policies toward Pakistan are unlikely to change.
At the same time, Pakistan’s strategic importance in the region cannot be ignored. As the United States continues to focus on containing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, Pakistan’s relationship with China will remain a key factor in shaping U.S. policy. If Trump seeks to strengthen ties with India as he hopes, this could exacerbate tensions with Pakistan, especially if the United States forces Islamabad to limit its ties with Beijing.
For Bangladesh, Trump 2.0 presents both economic opportunities and challenges. The United States remains Bangladesh’s largest export destination and a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI). Bangladesh’s garment industry, which is heavily dependent on U.S. markets, will be closely affected by Trump’s trade policies. While the United States has previously supported Bangladesh’s economic growth, particularly under President Obama’s administration, Trump’s “America First” policy could lead to increased scrutiny of trade relations, especially if tariffs on textiles and other goods are increased.
Bangladesh’s growing economic clout in South Asia could present opportunities for deeper trade relations with the United States, but these opportunities could be offset by the challenges posed by Trump’s trade protectionism. If Trump continues to prioritize reducing the U.S. trade deficit and increasing tariffs, Bangladesh could face further barriers to entry into the U.S. market, which would hurt its economic growth and job creation in the garment sector.
The Trump administration will continue to scrutinize Bangladesh’s political landscape, particularly its relationship with its own Muslim majority population. While Bangladesh has made progress in improving religious tolerance, concerns about the treatment of minorities, particularly Hindus, could become a contentious issue in US-Bangladesh relations. However, Trump’s foreign policy is likely to prioritize economic and security interests over ideological issues, meaning that economic ties between Bangladesh and the United States will remain a focal point of the bilateral relationship.
Both Sri Lanka and Nepal, relatively minor players in the regional geopolitical landscape, will need to adapt to changing US foreign policy priorities under Trump. Sri Lanka, which relies heavily on exports to the US market, particularly in the apparel and textile sectors, could face significant challenges if Trump’s tariff increases, particularly on Chinese goods, spread to other countries.
Sri Lanka’s exports to the US have historically been an important driver of its economic growth, and any disruption to these trade flows would negatively impact the country’s gross domestic product.