Sri Lanka could experience flooding during October and November if El Niño conditions continue to intensify, Director of Forecasting at the Department of Meteorology Ajith Wijemanna said.
Speaking on the developing weather pattern, Wijemanna said the country was currently experiencing a weak El Niño phase, but forecasts indicated that the phenomenon was likely to strengthen gradually over the coming months.
He noted that projections suggested El Niño could develop into a strong or very strong event after November, with the likelihood of it persisting through the December-February period. According to him, there was a more than 60% probability of El Niño reaching a very strong phase during that period.
Wijemanna said El Niño events were generally classified as weak, moderate, strong, and very strong, and that Sri Lanka was presently experiencing the weakest category.
Recent assessments by the Department of Meteorology and international climate agencies have indicated a high probability of El Niño conditions emerging and persisting through late 2026 and early 2027. However, meteorologists caution that the precise impact on Sri Lanka’s rainfall patterns and flood risk will depend on how the phenomenon evolves in the coming months.
The Department of Meteorology has previously warned that El Niño is expected to begin influencing Sri Lanka’s weather from July, with potential effects on rainfall distribution, temperatures, and monsoon activity.
