The New York-based political risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said the opposition's candidate Maithripala Sirisena was likely to "narrowly win," but that ruling party could still use security forces to discourage opposition supporters from voting.

"Fresh defections from President Rajapakse's ruling coalition suggest that opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena will narrowly win the presidency when votes are counted on 8 January," Eurasia's Sasha Riser-Kositsky said in a report released Monday night.

He was referring to Industry and Commerce Minister Rishad Bathiudeen who quit the coalition government on Monday and withdrew the support of his All Ceylon Makkal (People's) Congress.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group warned two weeks ago that the ruling party could try to remain in power by using security forces, a suggestion discounted by both the military and the opposition.

However, Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe told business leaders in Colombo Tuesday that a majority in the armed forces was sympathetic to the opposition and he expected a peaceful transition.

Wickremesinghe said they will hold no grudges, but ensure rule of law which he said had been undermined by Rajapakse who is also accused of suppressing dissent despite the end of the separatist war.