The Northern Province, with its vote base of around 700,000 votes, will play an important role in the coming presidential election. However, according to a report by The Hindu, some analysts have commented that the Tamil people do not see this as “their election.”

While the Tamil National Alliance has endorsed common opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena, the report said that there is no real pro-Sirisena sentiment among the Tamils. However, the anti-Mahinda Rajapaksa sentiment is clearly evident, the report also said.

While there is an apparent anti-Rajapaksa sentiment pervading the North, there is no major wave in favour of the opposition candidate, unlike in 1994 when former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga contested, Devanayagam Premanand, executive editor of the Jaffna-based Uthayan has told The Hindu.

Northern Tamils don’t see Maithripala Sririsena as being very different from President Mahinda Rajapaksa. “Both were after all in the same party, working together during the war. However, the Tamils are determined to unseat Rajapaksa and that is why they will vote for Mr. Sirisena,” he has added.

People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) leader and Tamil National Alliance (TNA) member D. Sithadthan concurred with the view. “It [Tamil vote] will very much be an anti-Mahinda vote, but cannot be perceived as necessarily a pro-Sirisena vote,” he has said.

Premnand has also added that sections among Tamils feel this election is not really “their election”, despite the TNA deciding to pledge support to Sirisena. “People can’t see how their lives will change post-elections.”

Moreover, neither of the candidates has spoken about the Tamils’ long-pending demand for devolution or implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution that speaks of it, perhaps fearing hostility from their Sinhala electorates. Many Tamils appear to have already lowered their expectations from the government that would take charge post-elections.

In the 2005 presidential polls, large sections of Tamils did not vote since the LTTE enforced an election boycott, perhaps enabling a narrow victory for Rajapaksa against UNP leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe. In 2010, Tamil people overwhelmingly supported Sarath Fonseka against President Rajapaksa who they have been accusing of war crimes. That Fonseka was commanding the army when the LTTE was defeated did not come in the way of their anti-Rajapaksa position.

This time, TNA has chosen to endorse Mr. Sirisena, hoping that his victory would open up democratic space in the country and set the stage for negotiations.

Northern Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran endorsed the view in a statement in which he said, “a vote against the [Rajapaksa] regime is a vote for democracy.” He added that it would be harder for the common candidate to continue suppressing the Tamils’ rights, considering that a diverse coalition, including minority Muslims, backs him.

Addressing a recent campaign rally in Jaffna, President Rajapaksa urged Tamils to vote for him, a “known devil” rather than this chief rival Sirisena, who he referred to as an “unknown angel.”  It is not difficult to guess which of these the Tamils will choose, The Hindu stated.

(with inputs from The Hindu)