A pre-parliamentary election survey conducted by the prestigious Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA) has found that former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, the primary candidate of the opposition United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA), is slightly ahead of Ranil Wickremesinghe, the chief candidate of the ruling United  National Front for Good Governance (UNFGG) among the majority Sinhalese community.

 

But Wickremesinghe has overwhelming support among the ethnic and religious minorities, namely; Lankan Tamils, Indian Origin Tamils and Muslims.

 

The survey conducted from July 22 to 29 among 1986 respondents from all the 25 districts of Sri Lanka, found that 36 percent of Sinhalese wanted Rajapaksa to be Prime Minister while Wickremesinghe was preferred by 31.9 percent.

 

But the situation among the minorities was radically different. 62.3 percent of Lankan Tamils; 71.1 percent of Indian Origin Tamils; and 62 percent of Muslims opted for Wickremesinghe. Less than 2 percent of the minorities wanted to see Rajapaksa as PM. Overall, 42 percent of Lankans said that Rajapaksa should not be contesting at all, while 40 percent said that he can contest.

 

In the Lankan population, Sinhalese are 74 percent; Lankan Tamils are 12 percent; Indian Origin Tamils are 5 percent; and Muslims, 8 percent.

 

Same As Presidential Election

 

The ethnic distribution of support in the run up to the August 17 parliamentary elections is the same as that which prevailed at the time of the January 8 Presidential election. In the Presidential election, incumbent Rajapaksa was trounced by Maithripala Sirisena by 440,000 votes. At that time too, Rajapaksa had an edge among the majority Sinhalese, but had drawn a blank among the minorities. This tilted the balance in Sirisena’s favor. Given the existence of a similar scenario now, Rajapaksa continues to be the political underdog.

 

Power of TV

 

58.1 percent of the respondents said that they have already made up their minds about who they should vote for. 59 percent said that their decision was based on media reports. TV was the most influential medium with 81.5 percent saying that  TV coverage helped them make up their minds.

 

Lankan TV stations, including state-run stations, cover public meetings of all political parties, have interviews and panel discussions on a daily basis.

(The New Indian Express)